Bundesliga Gameweek 23
Mainz
Feb 20, 2026 7.30pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Mewa Arena
Hamburger SV
  • Nadiem Amiri 42' goal
  • Sheraldo Becker 46' yellowcard
  • Nikolas Veratschnig 59' yellowcard
  • Paul Nebel 86' yellowcard
  • goal Fábio Vieira 64'
  • yellowcard William Mikelbrencis 65'
  • yellowcard Yussuf Poulsen 65'
  • yellowcard Rayan Philippe 76'
  • yellowcard Daniel Elfadli 87'
  • yellowcard Giorgi Gocholeishvili 88'

Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last game
Feb 13, 2026 7.30pm
Dortmund 4 - 0 Mainz
Goals scored
31
Top scorer
Paul Nebel

Hamburger SV

All competitions
Last game
Feb 14, 2026 2.30pm
Hamburger SV 3 - 2 Union Berlin
Goals scored
30
Top scorer
Fabio Vieira

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 46.9%. A win for Hamburger SV had a probability of 27.2% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.36%) and 2-0 (8.53%). The likeliest Hamburger SV win was 0-1 (7.59%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood.

Result

Mainz 05 46.9% ▲ (+0.04)
Draw 25.9% ▲ (+0.01)
Hamburger SV 27.2%

Both Teams to Score: 

51.44% ▼ (-0.06)

Goals

Over 1.5 73.18%
Under 1.5 26.82%
Over 2.5 48.28% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 2.5 51.72% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 3.5 26.75% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 3.5 73.25% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 4.5 14.68% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 4.5 85.32% ▼ (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Mainz 05 33.79%
Draw 42.41%
Hamburger SV 23.8%

Team To Score First

Mainz 05 52.31%
No Goal 7.75% ▲ (+0.01)
Hamburger SV 39.94% ▼ (-0.02)

Corners

Over 8 58.51% ▼ (-0.03)
Equal 8 11.52%
Under 8 29.97% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 9 46.7% ▼ (-0.02)
Equal 9 11.81%
Under 9 41.49% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 10.5 35.61% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 10.5 64.39% ▲ (+0.02)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 1.5 43.57% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 1.5 56.43% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 2.5 18.58% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 2.5 81.42% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 6.56% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 93.44% ▼ (-0.02)

Hamburger SV Goals

Over 0.5 61.7%
Under 0.5 38.3%
Over 1.5 28.21% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 1.5 71.79% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 2.5 9.78%
Under 2.5 90.22%
Over 3.5 2.67%
Under 3.5 97.33%

Score analysis

Mainz 05 46.9%
Draw 25.9%
Hamburger SV 27.21%
Mainz 05
1-0 @ 11.49% ▲ (+0.02)
2-1 @ 9.36% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 8.53%
3-1 @ 4.5%
3-0 @ 4.05%
3-2 @ 2.48%
Other @ 6.49% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 46.9%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.04% ▲ (+0.01)
0-0 @ 7.75% ▲ (+0.01)
2-2 @ 5.05% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 0.07%
Total : 25.9%
Hamburger SV
0-1 @ 7.59% ▲ (+0.01)
1-2 @ 6.58%
0-2 @ 4.32%
1-3 @ 2.54%
2-3 @ 2.05%
0-3 @ 1.53%
Other @ 2.6%
Total : 27.21%

Head to Head

Bundesliga
Hamburger SV
Oct 5, 2025 4.30pm
4
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Mainz
Bundesliga
Hamburger SV
Mar 3, 2018 2.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)
Mainz
  • Walace 28' yellowcard
  • Jann-Fiete Arp 82' yellowcard
  • Douglas Santos 90' yellowcard
  • Christian Mathenia 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Gerrit Holtmann 16'
  • yellowcard Leon-Aderemi Balogun 34'
  • redcard Leon-Aderemi Balogun 61'
  • yellowcard Jean-Philippe Gbamin 70'
  • yellowcard Stefan Bell 84'
Bundesliga
Mainz
Oct 14, 2017 2.30pm
3
2
HT : 1 1
FT OPEL ARENA (Mainz)
Hamburger SV
  • Alexandru Maxim 2' goal
  • Stefan Bell 52' goal
  • Danny Latza 58' goal
  • Abdou Diallo 73' yellowcard
  • goal Walace 9'
  • yellowcard Mergim Mavraj 42'
  • goal Sejad Salihovic 90'
Bundesliga
Hamburger SV
May 7, 2017 2.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Mainz
  • Gotoku Sakai 70' yellowcard
  • Mergim Mavraj 80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Giulio Donati 78'
Bundesliga
Mainz
Dec 17, 2016 2.30pm
3
1
HT : 1 1
FT
Hamburger SV
  • Danny Latza 35' goal
  • Pablo de Blasis 41' yellowcard
  • Danny Latza 56' goal
  • Danny Latza 67' goal
  • Danny Latza 68' yellowcard
  • goal Bobby Wood 21'
  • yellowcard Emir Spahic 43'
  • yellowcard Michael Gregoritsch 53'
  • yellowcard Matthias Ostrzolek 79'
Bundesliga
Mainz
Apr 30, 2016 2.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Hamburger SV
  • yellowcard Emir Spahic 22'
  • yellowcard Nabil Bahoui 61'
  • yellowcard Gojko Kacar 63'

Form Data

Dortmund 4 - 0 Mainz
Mainz 2 - 0 Augsburg
RB Leipzig 1 - 2 Mainz
Mainz 3 - 1 Wolfsburg
FC Koln 2 - 1 Mainz
Mainz 2 - 1 Heidenheim
Hamburger SV 3 - 2 Union Berlin
Heidenheim 0 - 2 Hamburger SV
Aarhus Fremad 0 - 0 Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV 2 - 2 Bayern
St Pauli 0 - 0 Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV 0 - 0 Borussia M'bach