Bundesliga Gameweek 23
Feb 20, 2026 7.30pm
Mewa Arena

Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last game
Feb 13, 2026 7.30pm
Dortmund 4 - 0 Mainz
Goals scored
22
Top scorer
Kacper Potulski

Hamburger SV

All competitions
Last game
Feb 14, 2026 2.30pm
Hamburger SV 3 - 2 Union Berlin
Goals scored
23
Top scorer
Albert Sambi Lokonga

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 46.73%. A win for Hamburger SV has a probability of 27.34% and a draw has a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.39%) and 2-0 (8.48%). The likeliest Hamburger SV win is 0-1 (7.6%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.03%).

Result

Mainz 05 46.73% (+0.01)
Draw 25.9% (-0.03)
Hamburger SV 27.34% (-0.02)

Both Teams to Score: 

51.64% (+0.08)

Goals

Over 1.5 73.28% (+0.04)
Under 1.5 26.72% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 48.42% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 51.58% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 26.87% (+0.07)
Under 3.5 73.13% (-0.07)
Over 4.5 14.73% (+0.05)
Under 4.5 85.27% (-0.05)

First Half Winner

Mainz 05 33.79% (+0.11)
Draw 42.41% (-0.07)
Hamburger SV 23.8% (-0.06)

Team To Score First

Mainz 05 52.33% (-0.02)
No Goal 7.71% (-0.01)
Hamburger SV 39.96% (+0.03)

Corners

Over 8 58.52% (+0.13)
Equal 8 11.52% (-0.04)
Under 8 29.96% (-0.08)
Over 9 46.71% (+0.15)
Equal 9 11.82% (-0.02)
Under 9 41.48% (-0.13)
Over 10.5 35.61% (+0.15)
Under 10.5 64.39% (-0.16)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 1.5 43.58% (+0.06)
Under 1.5 56.42% (-0.06)
Over 2.5 18.55% (+0.06)
Under 2.5 81.45% (-0.05)
Over 3.5 6.55% (+0.02)
Under 3.5 93.45% (-0.02)

Hamburger SV Goals

Over 0.5 61.91% (+0.01)
Under 0.5 38.09% (-0.01)
Over 1.5 28.39%
Under 1.5 71.61%
Over 2.5 9.86% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 90.14% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 2.69%
Under 3.5 97.31%

Score analysis

Mainz 05 46.74%
Draw 25.9%
Hamburger SV 27.34%
Mainz 05
1-0 @ 11.39% (-0.02)
2-1 @ 9.39%
2-0 @ 8.48%
3-1 @ 4.5% (+0.02)
3-0 @ 4.01%
3-2 @ 2.49% (+0.02)
Other @ 6.48% (+0.03)
Total : 46.74%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.03% (-0.01)
0-0 @ 7.71% (-0.01)
2-2 @ 5.09%
3-3 @ 1%
Other @ 0.07%
Total : 25.9%
Hamburger SV
0-1 @ 7.6%
1-2 @ 6.61% (-0.01)
0-2 @ 4.34% (-0.01)
1-3 @ 2.56% (+0.02)
2-3 @ 2.07% (+0.01)
0-3 @ 1.54% (-0.02)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 27.34%

Head to Head

Bundesliga
Oct 5, 2025 4.30pm
4
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Bundesliga
Mar 3, 2018 2.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)
  • Walace 28' yellowcard
  • Jann-Fiete Arp 82' yellowcard
  • Douglas Santos 90' yellowcard
  • Christian Mathenia 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Gerrit Holtmann 16'
  • yellowcard Leon-Aderemi Balogun 34'
  • redcard Leon-Aderemi Balogun 61'
  • yellowcard Jean-Philippe Gbamin 70'
  • yellowcard Stefan Bell 84'
Bundesliga
Oct 14, 2017 2.30pm
3
2
HT : 1 1
FT OPEL ARENA (Mainz)
  • Alexandru Maxim 2' goal
  • Stefan Bell 52' goal
  • Danny Latza 58' goal
  • Abdou Diallo 73' yellowcard
  • goal Walace 9'
  • yellowcard Mergim Mavraj 42'
  • goal Sejad Salihovic 90'
Bundesliga
May 7, 2017 2.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Gotoku Sakai 70' yellowcard
  • Mergim Mavraj 80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Giulio Donati 78'
Bundesliga
Dec 17, 2016 2.30pm
3
1
HT : 1 1
FT
  • Danny Latza 35' goal
  • Pablo de Blasis 41' yellowcard
  • Danny Latza 56' goal
  • Danny Latza 67' goal
  • Danny Latza 68' yellowcard
  • goal Bobby Wood 21'
  • yellowcard Emir Spahic 43'
  • yellowcard Michael Gregoritsch 53'
  • yellowcard Matthias Ostrzolek 79'
Bundesliga
Apr 30, 2016 2.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • yellowcard Emir Spahic 22'
  • yellowcard Nabil Bahoui 61'
  • yellowcard Gojko Kacar 63'