Bundesliga Gameweek 22
Feb 13, 2026 7.30pm
Signal Iduna Park

Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz 05 - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Last game
Feb 7, 2026 2.30pm
Wolfsburg 1 - 2 Dortmund
Goals scored
40
Top scorer
Julian Brandt

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last game
Feb 7, 2026 2.30pm
Mainz 2 - 0 Augsburg
Goals scored
22
Top scorer
Kacper Potulski

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 69.16%. A draw has a probability of 18.6% and a win for Mainz 05 has a probability of 12.27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (11.65%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (8.4%) , while for a Mainz 05 win it is 0-1 (3.8%).

Result

Borussia Dortmund 69.16%
Draw 18.6% (-0.03)
Mainz 05 12.27%

Both Teams to Score: 

49.27%

Goals

Over 1.5 78.86%
Under 1.5 21.14%
Over 2.5 57.38% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 42.62% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 35.27% (+0.05)
Under 3.5 64.73% (-0.04)
Over 4.5 23.75% (+0.04)
Under 4.5 76.25% (-0.04)

First Half Winner

Borussia Dortmund 52.28%
Draw 32.96%
Mainz 05 14.76%

Team To Score First

Borussia Dortmund 70.12% (+0.02)
No Goal 5.45% (-0.02)
Mainz 05 24.43% (+0.01)

Corners

Over 8 60.52%
Equal 8 11.36%
Under 8 28.12%
Over 9 48.68%
Equal 9 11.84%
Under 9 39.48%
Over 10.5 37.4%
Under 10.5 62.6%

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 1.5 63.13% (+0.03)
Under 1.5 36.87% (-0.03)
Over 2.5 36.9% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 63.1% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 17.48% (+0.02)
Under 3.5 82.52% (-0.02)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5 45.25% (-0.01)
Under 0.5 54.75% (+0.01)
Over 1.5 16.54% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 83.46% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 4.35% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 95.65% (-0.01)
Over 3.5 1.02%
Under 3.5 98.98%

Score analysis

Borussia Dortmund 69.16%
Draw 18.6%
Mainz 05 12.27%
Borussia Dortmund
1-0 @ 11.92% (-0.01)
2-0 @ 11.65% (-0.01)
2-1 @ 9.64%
3-0 @ 8.36%
3-1 @ 6.87%
3-2 @ 3.32% (+0.01)
Other @ 17.4% (+0.01)
Total : 69.16%
Draw
1-1 @ 8.4% (-0.01)
0-0 @ 5.45% (-0.02)
2-2 @ 3.8%
Other @ 0.08%
Total : 18.6%
Mainz 05
0-1 @ 3.8% (-0.02)
1-2 @ 3.63%
0-2 @ 1.44% (-0.02)
2-3 @ 1.14% (+0.02)
Other @ 0.94%
Total : 12.27%

Head to Head

Bundesliga
Sep 27, 2025 2.30pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Bundesliga Gameweek 27
Mar 30, 2025 4.30pm
3
1
HT : 2 0
FT Signal-Iduna-Park
  • Maximilian Beier 39' goal
  • Emre Can 42' goal
  • Yan Couto 45' yellowcard
  • Maximilian Beier 72' goal
  • Nico Schlotterbeck 89' yellowcard
  • goal Paul Nebel 76'
Bundesliga Gameweek 10
Nov 9, 2024 2.30pm
3
1
HT : 2 1
FT Mewa Arena
  • Paul Nebel 32' yellowcard
  • Lee Jae-sung 36' goal
  • Dominik Kohr 45' yellowcard
  • Jonathan Burkardt 45'+3' goal
  • Paul Nebel 54' goal
  • Robin Zentner 86' yellowcard
  • redcard Emre Can 27'
  • yellowcard Nico Schlotterbeck 28'
  • goal Serhou Guirassy 40'
Bundesliga Gameweek 33
May 11, 2024 5.30pm
3
0
HT : 3 0
FT Mewa Arena
  • Leandro Barreiro 12' goal
  • Lee Jae-sung 19' goal
  • Lee Jae-sung 23' goal
  • Andreas Hanche-Olsen 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Leandro Barreiro 56' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Marco Reus 41'
  • yellowcard Nico Schlotterbeck 80'
Bundesliga Gameweek 16
Dec 19, 2023 7.30pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Signal-Iduna-Park
  • Julian Brandt 29' goal
  • yellowcard Stefan Bell 39'
  • goal Sepp van den Berg 43'
  • yellowcard Jonathan Burkardt 85'
  • yellowcard Tom Krauss 90'
  • yellowcard Aymen Barkok 90'+2'
Bundesliga Gameweek 34
May 27, 2023 2.30pm
2
2
HT : 0 2
FT
  • Raphael Guerreiro 69' goal
  • Niklas Sule 90'+6' goal
  • goal Andreas Hanche-Olsen 15'
  • goal Karim Onisiwo 24'