Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 69.01%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 12.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.6%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.4%) , while for a Mainz 05 win it was 0-1 (3.82%).