Bundesliga Gameweek 20
Jan 31, 2026 2.30pm
Red Bull Arena

RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05 - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

RB Leipzig

All competitions
Last game
Jan 27, 2026 7.30pm
St Pauli 0 - 0 RB Leipzig
Goals scored
36
Top scorer
Yan Diomande

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last game
Jan 24, 2026 2.30pm
Mainz 3 - 1 Wolfsburg
Goals scored
18
Top scorer
Kacper Potulski

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 56.36%. A win for Mainz 05 has a probability of 22.18% and a draw has a probability of 21.49%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (9.4%) and 2-0 (9.01%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win is 1-2 (5.7%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.67%).

Result

RB Leipzig 56.36% (+0.04)
Draw 21.49% (-0.03)
Mainz 05 22.18% (-0.06)

Both Teams to Score: 

57.62% (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 80.93% (-0.01)
Under 1.5 19.07% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 59.46% (+0.03)
Under 2.5 40.54% (-0.03)
Over 3.5 37.53%
Under 3.5 62.47%
Over 4.5 23.27%
Under 4.5 76.73%

First Half Winner

RB Leipzig 42.46% (-0.07)
Draw 34.38% (+0.04)
Mainz 05 23.16% (+0.02)

Team To Score First

RB Leipzig 59.35% (+0.03)
No Goal 4.61%
Mainz 05 36.04% (-0.03)

Corners

Over 8 63.85% (-0.06)
Equal 8 10.34%
Under 8 25.82% (+0.08)
Over 9 52.81% (-0.06)
Equal 9 11.04%
Under 9 36.15% (+0.06)
Over 10.5 41.95% (-0.05)
Under 10.5 58.05% (+0.05)

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 1.5 56.47% (+0.07)
Under 1.5 43.53% (-0.07)
Over 2.5 29.79% (+0.03)
Under 2.5 70.21% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 12.64% (+0.03)
Under 3.5 87.36% (-0.02)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5 58.91% (-0.08)
Under 0.5 41.09% (+0.08)
Over 1.5 28.15% (-0.06)
Under 1.5 71.85% (+0.05)
Over 2.5 10.02% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 89.98% (+0.03)
Over 3.5 3.17% (-0.03)
Under 3.5 96.83% (+0.02)

Score analysis

RB Leipzig 56.37%
Draw 21.49%
Mainz 05 22.17%
RB Leipzig
2-1 @ 9.6% (+0.02)
1-0 @ 9.4% (-0.02)
2-0 @ 9.01% (+0.01)
3-1 @ 6.4%
3-0 @ 5.52% (+0.01)
3-2 @ 3.86%
Other @ 12.58% (+0.02)
Total : 56.37%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.67% (-0.02)
2-2 @ 5.78%
0-0 @ 4.61%
3-3 @ 1.37%
Other @ 0.06%
Total : 21.49%
Mainz 05
1-2 @ 5.7% (-0.01)
0-1 @ 5.09% (-0.03)
0-2 @ 2.79% (-0.03)
2-3 @ 2.29%
1-3 @ 2.08%
0-3 @ 1.11%
Other @ 3.11% (-0.03)
Total : 22.17%

Head to Head

Bundesliga
Sep 13, 2025 2.30pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Bundesliga Gameweek 24
Mar 1, 2025 2.30pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT Red Bull Arena
  • Xavi Simons 1' goal
  • Amadou Haidara 52' yellowcard
  • goal Nadiem Amiri 52'
  • goal Jonathan Burkardt 58'
  • yellowcard Lennard Maloney 88'
Bundesliga Gameweek 7
Oct 19, 2024 2.30pm
0
2
HT : 0 2
FT Mewa Arena
  • Paul Nebel 90'+1' yellowcard
  • goal Xavi Simons 20'
  • goal Willi Orban 37'
  • yellowcard Amadou Haidara 53'
  • yellowcard Arthur Vermeeren 60'
  • yellowcard Eljif Elmas 89'
Bundesliga Gameweek 27
Mar 30, 2024 2.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1
  • Castello Lukeba 67' yellowcard
  • Xavi Simons 86' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Anthony Caci 20'
  • yellowcard Phillipp Mwene 27'
  • yellowcard Nadiem Amiri 34'
  • yellowcard Leandro Barreiro 70'
  • yellowcard Andreas Hanche-Olsen 79'
Bundesliga Gameweek 10
Nov 4, 2023 2.30pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT OPEL ARENA
  • Anthony Caci 39' yellowcard
  • Lee Jae-sung 76' goal
  • Leandro Barreiro 80' goal
  • Aymen Barkok 88' yellowcard
  • Sepp van den Berg 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Lukas Klostermann 51'
Bundesliga Gameweek 26
Apr 1, 2023 2.30pm
0
3
HT : 0 1
FT
  • goal Marcus Ingvartsen 9'
  • goal Ludovic Ajorque 57'
  • goal Dominik Kohr 67'