Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 55.58%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 22.28% and a draw had a probability of 22.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.02%) and 0-2 (8.66%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 2-1 (5.84%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.