Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 46.86%. A win for Wolfsburg had a probability of 28.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.99%) and 0-2 (7.46%). The likeliest Wolfsburg win was 2-1 (7.09%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.