Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 83.95%. A draw had a probability of 10.38% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 5.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.7%) and 4-0 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.68%) , while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (1.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.