Bundesliga Gameweek 16
Jan 10, 2026 2.30pm
Millerntor-Stadion

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

St Pauli

All competitions
Last game
Dec 21, 2025 2.30pm
Mainz 0 - 0 St Pauli
Goals scored
13
Top scorer
Martijn Kaars

RB Leipzig

All competitions
Last game
Dec 20, 2025 5.30pm
RB Leipzig 1 - 3 B. Leverkusen
Goals scored
30
Top scorer
Yan Diomande

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 41.41%. A win for St Pauli has a probability of 33.78% and a draw has a probability of 24.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win is 0-1 with a probability of 8.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (6.21%). The likeliest St Pauli win is 1-0 (8.01%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.23%).

Result

St Pauli 33.78%
Draw 24.81%
RB Leipzig 41.41%

Both Teams to Score: 

55.95%

Goals

Over 1.5 76.92%
Under 1.5 23.08%
Over 2.5 54.48%
Under 2.5 45.52%
Over 3.5 32.36%
Under 3.5 67.64%
Over 4.5 18.3%
Under 4.5 81.7%

First Half Winner

St Pauli 25.13%
Draw 37.25%
RB Leipzig 37.62%

Team To Score First

St Pauli 39.35%
No Goal 6.08%
RB Leipzig 54.57%

Corners

Over 8 62.32%
Equal 8 10.78%
Under 8 26.9%
Over 9 50.94%
Equal 9 11.38%
Under 9 37.68%
Over 10.5 39.9%
Under 10.5 60.1%

St Pauli Goals

Over 1.5 36.02%
Under 1.5 63.98%
Over 2.5 14.79%
Under 2.5 85.21%
Over 3.5 4.73%
Under 3.5 95.27%

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 0.5 74.07%
Under 0.5 25.93%
Over 1.5 42.53%
Under 1.5 57.47%
Over 2.5 19.04%
Under 2.5 80.96%
Over 3.5 7.04%
Under 3.5 92.96%

Score analysis

St Pauli 33.79%
Draw 24.8%
RB Leipzig 41.41%
St Pauli
1-0 @ 8.01%
2-1 @ 7.59%
2-0 @ 5%
3-1 @ 3.73%
3-2 @ 2.62%
3-0 @ 2.33%
Other @ 4.51%
Total : 33.79%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.23%
0-0 @ 6.08%
2-2 @ 5.89%
3-3 @ 1.38%
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 24.8%
RB Leipzig
0-1 @ 8.99%
1-2 @ 8.77%
0-2 @ 6.21%
1-3 @ 4.44%
0-3 @ 3.43%
2-3 @ 2.75%
Other @ 6.82%
Total : 41.41%

Head to Head

Bundesliga Gameweek 21
Feb 9, 2025 4.30pm
2
0
HT : 2 0
FT Red Bull Arena
  • Lutsharel Geertruida 1' yellowcard
  • Benjamin Sesko 16' goal
  • Xavi Simons 35' goal
  • Kevin Kampl 66' yellowcard
  • Willi Orban 69' redcard
  • yellowcard Siebe Van der Heyden 11'
  • yellowcard Adam Dzwigala 58'
DFB-Pokal
Oct 29, 2024 5.00pm
4
2
HT : 3 1
FT Red Bull Arena
  • Yussuf Poulsen 12' goal
  • Christoph Baumgartner 17' goal
  • Yussuf Poulsen 30' goal
  • Antonio Nusa 80' goal
  • goal Morgan Guilavogui 28'
  • yellowcard Manolis Saliakas 40'
  • goal Eric Smith 59'
Bundesliga Gameweek 4
Sep 22, 2024 6.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Millerntor-Stadion
  • Philipp Treu 29' yellowcard
  • Elias Saad 71' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Amadou Haidara 24'