Bundesliga
Jan 27, 2026 7.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Millerntor-Stadion
  • Martijn Kaars 67' yellowcard
  • Mathias Pereira Lage 76' yellowcard
  • Jackson Irvine 77' yellowcard
  • Mathias Rasmussen 77' yellowcard
  • Abdoulie Ceesay 87' yellowcard
  • Martijn Kaars 90'+3' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Conrad Harder 64'
  • goal Yan Diomande 66'
  • yellowcard Ezechiel Banzuzi 85'
  • yellowcard Tidiam Gomis 85'
  • yellowcard Benjamin Henrichs 90'+4'

St Pauli vs RB Leipzig - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

St Pauli

All competitions
Last game
Jan 23, 2026 7.30pm
St Pauli 0 - 0 Hamburger SV
Goals scored
24
Top scorer
Martijn Kaars

RB Leipzig

All competitions
Last game
Jan 24, 2026 2.30pm
Heidenheim 0 - 3 RB Leipzig
Goals scored
53
Top scorer
Christoph Baumgartner

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 47.78%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 27.17% and a draw had a probability of 25.02%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.44%) and 0-2 (7.95%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 1-0 (7.35%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.

Result

St Pauli 27.17% (+0.04)
Draw 25.02% (+0.02)
RB Leipzig 47.78% (-0.05)

Both Teams to Score: 

53.4%

Goals

Over 1.5 75.28% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 24.72% (+0.01)
Over 2.5 51.6%
Under 2.5 48.4%
Over 3.5 29.41%
Under 3.5 70.59%
Over 4.5 16.48% (+0.02)
Under 4.5 83.52% (-0.03)

First Half Winner

St Pauli 22.13%
Draw 38.28%
RB Leipzig 39.59%

Team To Score First

St Pauli 34.98% (+0.05)
No Goal 6.89%
RB Leipzig 58.13% (-0.05)

Corners

Over 8 60.06%
Equal 8 11.3%
Under 8 28.64%
Over 9 48.33%
Equal 9 11.73%
Under 9 39.94%
Over 10.5 37.17%
Under 10.5 62.83%

St Pauli Goals

Over 1.5 29.3% (+0.04)
Under 1.5 70.7% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 10.25% (+0.03)
Under 2.5 89.75% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 2.83% (+0.03)
Under 3.5 97.17% (-0.02)

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 0.5 77.18% (-0.02)
Under 0.5 22.82% (+0.02)
Over 1.5 45.85% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 54.15% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 21.13% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 78.87% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 7.74%
Under 3.5 92.26%

Score analysis

St Pauli 27.17%
Draw 25.03%
RB Leipzig 47.79%
St Pauli
1-0 @ 7.35% (+0.01)
2-1 @ 6.63%
2-0 @ 4.14%
3-1 @ 2.64%
3-2 @ 1.98%
3-0 @ 1.7%
Other @ 2.73% (+0.01)
Total : 27.17%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.59%
0-0 @ 6.89%
2-2 @ 5.35% (+0.01)
3-3 @ 1.1% (+0.02)
Other @ 0.1% (+0.02)
Total : 25.03%
RB Leipzig
0-1 @ 10.47%
1-2 @ 9.44% (-0.01)
0-2 @ 7.95% (-0.01)
1-3 @ 4.95% (-0.01)
0-3 @ 4.41% (-0.01)
2-3 @ 2.93%
Other @ 7.64% (-0.02)
Total : 47.79%

Head to Head

Bundesliga Gameweek 21
Feb 9, 2025 4.30pm
2
0
HT : 2 0
FT Red Bull Arena
  • Lutsharel Geertruida 1' yellowcard
  • Benjamin Sesko 16' goal
  • Xavi Simons 35' goal
  • Kevin Kampl 66' yellowcard
  • Willi Orban 69' redcard
  • yellowcard Siebe Van der Heyden 11'
  • yellowcard Adam Dzwigala 58'
DFB-Pokal
Oct 29, 2024 5.00pm
4
2
HT : 3 1
FT Red Bull Arena
  • Yussuf Poulsen 12' goal
  • Christoph Baumgartner 17' goal
  • Yussuf Poulsen 30' goal
  • Antonio Nusa 80' goal
  • goal Morgan Guilavogui 28'
  • yellowcard Manolis Saliakas 40'
  • goal Eric Smith 59'
Bundesliga Gameweek 4
Sep 22, 2024 6.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Millerntor-Stadion
  • Philipp Treu 29' yellowcard
  • Elias Saad 71' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Amadou Haidara 24'