Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsburg win with a probability of 38.27%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 35.65% and a draw had a probability of 26.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.26%) and 2-0 (6.4%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 0-1 (8.95%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.