Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 51.15%. A win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 27.44% and a draw had a probability of 21.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.33%) and 3-1 (6.24%). The likeliest Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 (6.56%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.