Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 49.15%. A win for Heidenheim had a probability of 26.46% and a draw had a probability of 24.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.67%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Heidenheim win was 0-1 (6.77%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.