Bundesliga Gameweek 20
Jan 31, 2026 5.30pm
Volksparkstadion

Hamburger SV vs Bayern Munich - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Hamburger SV

All competitions
Last game
Jan 23, 2026 7.30pm
St Pauli 0 - 0 Hamburger SV
Goals scored
16
Top scorer
Albert Sambi Lokonga

Bayern Munich

All competitions
Last game
Jan 24, 2026 2.30pm
Bayern 1 - 2 Augsburg
Goals scored
72
Top scorer
Harry Kane

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 62.73%. A draw has a probability of 20.25% and a win for Hamburger SV has a probability of 16.99%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win is 1-2 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (9.86%) and 0-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.15%) , while for a Hamburger SV win it is 1-0 (4.79%).

Result

Hamburger SV 16.99% (-0.91)
Draw 20.25% (-0.29)
Bayern Munich 62.73% (+1.17)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.4% (-0.15)

Goals

Over 1.5 80.28% (-0.13)
Under 1.5 19.72% (+0.13)
Over 2.5 58.86% (-0.43)
Under 2.5 41.14% (+0.43)
Over 3.5 36.73% (-0.75)
Under 3.5 63.27% (+0.75)
Over 4.5 24.59% (-0.61)
Under 4.5 75.41% (+0.60)

First Half Winner

Hamburger SV 17.09% (-0.77)
Draw 31.13% (+2.72)
Bayern Munich 51.78% (-1.97)

Team To Score First

Hamburger SV 29.76% (-3.40)
No Goal 5.36% (-0.09)
Bayern Munich 64.88% (+3.49)

Corners

Over 8 63.75% (+0.18)
Equal 8 10.55% (+0.07)
Under 8 25.7% (-0.24)
Over 9 52.48% (+0.08)
Equal 9 11.26% (+0.09)
Under 9 36.25% (-0.16)
Over 10.5 41.43% (-0.01)
Under 10.5 58.57% (+0.01)

Hamburger SV Goals

Over 1.5 21.86% (-1.16)
Under 1.5 78.14% (+1.16)
Over 2.5 6.79% (-0.68)
Under 2.5 93.21% (+0.68)
Over 3.5 1.63% (-0.44)
Under 3.5 98.37% (+0.44)

Bayern Munich Goals

Over 0.5 85.15% (+0.60)
Under 0.5 14.85% (-0.59)
Over 1.5 60.51% (+0.77)
Under 1.5 39.49% (-0.77)
Over 2.5 34.72% (-0.01)
Under 2.5 65.28% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 16.21% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 83.79% (+0.02)

Score analysis

Hamburger SV 16.99%
Draw 20.24%
Bayern Munich 62.74%
Hamburger SV
1-0 @ 4.79% (-0.08)
2-1 @ 4.43% (-0.13)
2-0 @ 2.4% (-0.03)
3-2 @ 1.58% (-0.09)
3-1 @ 1.52% (-0.17)
Other @ 1.54% (-0.34)
Total : 16.99%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.15% (-0.17)
0-0 @ 5.36% (-0.09)
2-2 @ 4.31% (-0.07)
3-3 @ 1.33% (+0.12)
Other @ 0.09% (-0.10)
Total : 20.24%
Bayern Munich
1-2 @ 10.04% (+0.48)
0-2 @ 9.86% (+0.45)
0-1 @ 9.54% (+0.27)
0-3 @ 6.93% (+0.06)
1-3 @ 6.32% (+0.11)
2-3 @ 3.93% (-0.27)
Other @ 16.12% (+0.09)
Total : 62.74%

Head to Head

Bundesliga
Sep 13, 2025 5.30pm
5
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Bundesliga
Mar 10, 2018 2.30pm
6
0
HT : 3 0
FT Allianz Arena (München)
  • Arturo Vidal 4' yellowcard
  • Franck Ribery 8' goal
  • Robert Lewandowski 12' goal
  • Robert Lewandowski 19' goal
  • Arjen Robben 55' goal
  • Franck Ribery 81' goal
  • Robert Lewandowski 89' goal
  • yellowcard Rick van Drongelen 28'
  • yellowcard Douglas Santos 75'
Bundesliga
Oct 21, 2017 5.30pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)
  • Gideon Jung 38' redcard
  • Gotoku Sakai 73' yellowcard
  • yellowcard James Rodriguez 45'
  • goal Corentin Tolisso 52'
  • yellowcard Corentin Tolisso 75'
Bundesliga
Feb 25, 2017 2.30pm
8
0
HT : 3 0
FT
  • Arturo Vidal 17' goal
  • Robert Lewandowski 24' goal
  • Robert Lewandowski 42' goal
  • Robert Lewandowski 54' goal
  • David Alaba 56' goal
  • Kingsley Coman 65' goal
  • Kingsley Coman 69' goal
  • Arjen Robben 87' goal
  • yellowcard Douglas Santos 37'
Bundesliga
Sep 24, 2016 2.30pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Douglas Santos 70' yellowcard
  • Michael Gregoritsch 92' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Javi Martinez 65'
  • yellowcard Franck Ribery 73'
  • yellowcard Joshua Kimmich 83'
  • goal Joshua Kimmich 88'
Bundesliga
Jan 22, 2016 7.30pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Matthias Ostrzolek 20' yellowcard
  • Gojko Kacar 32' yellowcard
  • Rene Adler 36' yellowcard
  • Nicolai Muller 42' yellowcard
  • Xabi Alonso 53' goal
  • goal Robert Lewandowski 37'
  • yellowcard Philipp Lahm 45'
  • goal Robert Lewandowski 61'
  • yellowcard Xabi Alonso 82'