Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 52.86%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 26.04% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.52%) and 3-1 (6.45%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 1-2 (6.32%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.