Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 42%. A win for Hamburger SV had a probability of 34.89% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.58%) and 2-0 (5.64%). The likeliest Hamburger SV win was 1-2 (7.86%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.17%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.