Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 41.81%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 33.35% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.67%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 0-1 (7.91%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.