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Bundesliga

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Bundesliga | Gameweek 6
Sep 30, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
OPEL ARENA
Leverkusen logo

Mainz
0 - 3
B. Leverkusen


Fernandes (58'), Gruda (75'), Richter (90+2'), Barreiro (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-1)
van den Berg (18' og.), Grimaldo (59'), Hofmann (65')
Xhaka (4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Augsburg 2-1 Mainz
Saturday, September 23 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 4-1 Heidenheim
Sunday, September 24 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 44.85%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 29.75% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.14%) and 0-2 (7.7%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-0 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05DrawBayer Leverkusen
29.75%25.4%44.85%
Both teams to score 54.23%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.71% (0.0010000000000048 0)49.28% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.66% (0.0019999999999989 0)71.34% (-0.0020000000000095 -0)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.48% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)30.52%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.26% (0.00099999999999767 0)66.73% (-0.0020000000000095 -0)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.04%21.95% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.76%55.24% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 29.75%
    Bayer Leverkusen 44.84%
    Draw 25.39%
Mainz 05DrawBayer Leverkusen
1-0 @ 7.95% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-1 @ 7.16%
2-0 @ 4.72%
3-1 @ 2.83%
3-2 @ 2.15%
3-0 @ 1.87%
Other @ 3.08%
Total : 29.75%
1-1 @ 12.05%
0-0 @ 6.7%
2-2 @ 5.43% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-3 @ 1.09%
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.39%
0-1 @ 10.15%
1-2 @ 9.14%
0-2 @ 7.7%
1-3 @ 4.62%
0-3 @ 3.89%
2-3 @ 2.74%
1-4 @ 1.75%
0-4 @ 1.48%
2-4 @ 1.04%
Other @ 2.33%
Total : 44.84%

How you voted: Mainz vs B. Leverkusen

Mainz 05
6.8%
Draw
8.5%
Bayer Leverkusen
84.7%
59
Head to Head
Feb 19, 2023 6.30pm
Gameweek 21
B. Leverkusen
2-3
Mainz
Amiri (32'), Schick (58')
Caci (26'), Barreiro (45+4'), Ingvartsen (82' pen.)
> Preview
Aug 27, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 4
Mainz
0-3
B. Leverkusen

Burgzorg (70')
Palacios (29'), Frimpong (39', 41')
Hincapie (3'), Andrich (45'), Frimpong (60'), Bakker (76')
Hincapie (77'), Bakker (90+4')
> Preview
Feb 18, 2022 7.30pm
Gameweek 23
Mainz
3-2
B. Leverkusen
Caricol (57'), Boetius (84'), Ingvartsen (88')
Caricol (66'), Ingvartsen (90+5')
Schick (35'), Alario (74')
Adli (31'), Demirbay (56')
> Preview
Sep 25, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 6
B. Leverkusen
1-0
Mainz
Wirtz (62')
Tah (11'), Diaby (44'), Bakker (83'), Alario (90+3')

Lucoqui (44'), Stach (69'), Jae-sung (86')
> Preview
Feb 13, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 21
B. Leverkusen
2-2
Mainz
Alario (14'), Schick (84')
Tah (3'), Wendell (13'), Tapsoba (67'), Schick (68'), Fosu-Mensah (82')
Glatzel (89'), Stoger (90+2')
Stoger (90+4')
> Preview