Bundesliga Gameweek 6
Mainz
Sep 30, 2023 2.30pm
0
3
HT : 0 1
FT OPEL ARENA
B. Leverkusen
  • Edimilson Fernandes 58' yellowcard
  • Brajan Gruda 75' yellowcard
  • Marco Richter 90'+2' yellowcard
  • Leandro Barreiro 90'+4' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Granit Xhaka 4'
  • goal Sepp van den Berg 18' (OG)
  • goal Alex Grimaldo 59'
  • goal Jonas Hofmann 65'

Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last game
Sep 23, 2023 2.30pm
Augsburg 2 - 1 Mainz
Goals scored
39
Top scorer
Jonathan Burkardt

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Last game
Sep 24, 2023 2.30pm
B. Leverkusen 4 - 1 Heidenheim
Goals scored
89
Top scorer
Florian Wirtz

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 44.85%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 29.75% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.14%) and 0-2 (7.7%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-0 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result

Mainz 05 29.75%
Draw 25.4%
Bayer Leverkusen 44.85%

Both Teams to Score: 

54.23%

Goals

Over 2.5 50.71% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 2.5 49.28% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 3.5 28.66% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 71.34% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 4.5 13.75%
Under 4.5 86.24% ▼ (-0.01)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5 69.48% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 0.5 30.52%
Over 1.5 33.26% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 1.5 66.73% ▼ (-0.01)

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5 78.04%
Under 0.5 21.95% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 1.5 44.76%
Under 1.5 55.24% ▼ (-0.01)

Score analysis

Mainz 05 29.75%
Draw 25.39%
Bayer Leverkusen 44.84%
Mainz 05
1-0 @ 7.95% ▼ (-0.01)
2-1 @ 7.16%
2-0 @ 4.72%
3-1 @ 2.83%
3-2 @ 2.15%
3-0 @ 1.87%
Other @ 3.08%
Total : 29.75%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.05%
0-0 @ 6.7%
2-2 @ 5.43% ▲ (+0.01)
3-3 @ 1.09%
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.39%
Bayer Leverkusen
0-1 @ 10.15%
1-2 @ 9.14%
0-2 @ 7.7%
1-3 @ 4.62%
0-3 @ 3.89%
2-3 @ 2.74%
1-4 @ 1.75%
0-4 @ 1.48%
2-4 @ 1.04%
Other @ 2.33%
Total : 44.84%

Head to Head

Bundesliga Gameweek 21
B. Leverkusen
Feb 19, 2023 6.30pm
2
3
HT : 1 2
FT
Mainz
  • Nadiem Amiri 32' goal
  • Patrik Schick 58' goal
  • goal Anthony Caci 26'
  • goal Leandro Barreiro 45'+4'
  • goal Marcus Ingvartsen 82'
Bundesliga Gameweek 4
Mainz
Aug 27, 2022 2.30pm
0
3
HT : 0 3
FT
B. Leverkusen
  • Delano Burgzorg 70' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Piero Hincapie 3'
  • goal Exequiel Palacios 29'
  • goal Jeremie Frimpong 39'
  • goal Jeremie Frimpong 41'
  • yellowcard Robert Andrich 45'
  • yellowcard Jeremie Frimpong 60'
  • yellowcard Mitchel Bakker 76'
  • redcard Piero Hincapie 77'
  • redcard Mitchel Bakker 90'+4'
Bundesliga Gameweek 23
Mainz
Feb 18, 2022 7.30pm
3
2
HT : 0 1
FT
B. Leverkusen
  • Aaron Caricol 57' goal
  • Aaron Caricol 66' yellowcard
  • Jean-Paul Boetius 84' goal
  • Marcus Ingvartsen 88' goal
  • Marcus Ingvartsen 90'+5' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Amine Adli 31'
  • goal Patrik Schick 35'
  • yellowcard Kerem Demirbay 56'
  • goal Lucas Alario 74'
Bundesliga Gameweek 6
B. Leverkusen
Sep 25, 2021 2.30pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Mainz
  • Jonathan Tah 11' yellowcard
  • Moussa Diaby 44' yellowcard
  • Florian Wirtz 62' goal
  • Mitchel Bakker 83' yellowcard
  • Lucas Alario 90'+3' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Anderson Lucoqui 44'
  • yellowcard Anton Stach 69'
  • yellowcard Lee Jae-sung 86'
Bundesliga Gameweek 21
B. Leverkusen
Feb 13, 2021 2.30pm
2
2
HT : 1 0
FT
Mainz
  • Jonathan Tah 3' yellowcard
  • Wendell 13' yellowcard
  • Lucas Alario 14' goal
  • Edmond Tapsoba 67' yellowcard
  • Patrik Schick 68' yellowcard
  • Timothy Fosu-Mensah 82' yellowcard
  • Patrik Schick 84' goal
  • goal Robert Glatzel 89'
  • goal Kevin Stoger 90'+2'
  • yellowcard Kevin Stoger 90'+4'
Bundesliga Gameweek 4
Mainz
Oct 17, 2020 2.30pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT
B. Leverkusen
  • Danny Latza 75' yellowcard
  • Edimilson Fernandes 85' yellowcard
  • Dong-Won Ji 86' yellowcard
  • goal Lucas Alario 30'
  • yellowcard Lars Bender 57'

Form Data

Augsburg 2 - 1 Mainz
Mainz 1 - 3 Stuttgart
Werder Bremen 4 - 0 Mainz
Mainz 1 - 1 Frankfurt
Union Berlin 4 - 1 Mainz
Elversberg 0 - 1 Mainz
B. Leverkusen 4 - 1 Heidenheim
B. Leverkusen 4 - 0 Hacken
Bayern 2 - 2 B. Leverkusen
B. Leverkusen 5 - 1 Darmstadt
Borussia M'bach 0 - 3 B. Leverkusen
B. Leverkusen 3 - 2 RB Leipzig