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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 76.08%. A draw had a probability of 14.6% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 9.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.51%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.74%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (2.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
Result | ||
Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Mainz 05 |
76.08% (![]() | 14.59% (![]() | 9.33% (![]() |
Both teams to score 52.72% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
67.86% (![]() | 32.13% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
46.28% (![]() | 53.72% (![]() |
Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.01% (![]() | 6.99% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
74.41% (![]() | 25.59% (![]() |
Mainz 05 Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.68% (![]() | 43.32% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.44% (![]() | 79.56% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Mainz 05 |
2-0 @ 10.71% (![]() 3-0 @ 9.51% ( ![]() 2-1 @ 8.97% ( ![]() 1-0 @ 8.06% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 7.95% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 6.32% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 5.29% ( ![]() 5-0 @ 3.36% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 3.33% ( ![]() 5-1 @ 2.82% ( ![]() 4-2 @ 2.21% ( ![]() 6-0 @ 1.49% ( ![]() 6-1 @ 1.25% ( ![]() 5-2 @ 1.18% ( ![]() Other @ 3.63% Total : 76.07% | 1-1 @ 6.74% (![]() 2-2 @ 3.75% ( ![]() 0-0 @ 3.03% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 0.93% ( ![]() Other @ 0.14% Total : 14.59% | 1-2 @ 2.82% (![]() 0-1 @ 2.53% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 1.06% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 1.05% ( ![]() Other @ 1.87% Total : 9.33% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 22 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 65 | 19 | 46 | 55 |
2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 22 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 47 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 49 | 29 | 20 | 42 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 37 |
5 | Freiburg | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 36 |
6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 35 | 24 | 11 | 35 |
7 | Stuttgart | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 35 |
8 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 32 | 3 | 34 |
9 | Wolfsburg | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 33 |
10 | Werder Bremen | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 30 |
11 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 29 |
12 | Augsburg | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 28 |
13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 24 |
14 | St Pauli | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 21 |
15 | Hoffenheim | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 21 |
16 | Heidenheim | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 25 | 45 | -20 | 14 |
17 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 21 | 46 | -25 | 14 |
18 | Holstein Kiel | 22 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 13 |
> Bundesliga Full Table |