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VfL Bochum
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Bundesliga | Gameweek 17
Jan 14, 2025 at 7.30pm UK
BayArena
Mainz logo

B. Leverkusen
1 - 0
Mainz

Grimaldo (48')
Mukiele (69'), Xhaka (87')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Sieb (17'), Bell (51'), Caci (68'), Sieb (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Dortmund 2-3 B. Leverkusen
Friday, January 10 at 7.45pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Mainz 2-0 VfL Bochum
Saturday, January 11 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Mainz 05

Mainz are unlikely to be beaten easily on Tuesday, and it would not be surprising if the game was a closely fought contest. Leverkusen should be considered slight favourites given their excellent home record, and they could find joy during counter-attacks if Mainz are forced to push further forward in the event that the hosts take the lead. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 76.08%. A draw had a probability of 14.6% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 9.33%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.51%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.74%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (2.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Bayer LeverkusenDrawMainz 05
76.08% (0.235 0.23) 14.59% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01) 9.33% (-0.2289 -0.23)
Both teams to score 52.72% (-1.031 -1.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.86% (-0.77799999999999 -0.78)32.13% (0.777 0.78)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
46.28% (-0.914 -0.91)53.72% (0.912 0.91)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
93.01% (-0.129 -0.13)6.99% (0.128 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
74.41% (-0.34 -0.34)25.59% (0.338 0.34)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.68% (-1.029 -1.03)43.32% (1.027 1.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.44% (-0.871 -0.87)79.56% (0.871 0.87)
Score Analysis
    Bayer Leverkusen 76.07%
    Mainz 05 9.33%
    Draw 14.59%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawMainz 05
2-0 @ 10.71% (0.3 0.3)
3-0 @ 9.51% (0.204 0.2)
2-1 @ 8.97% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-0 @ 8.06% (0.281 0.28)
3-1 @ 7.95% (-0.053000000000001 -0.05)
4-0 @ 6.32% (0.093 0.09)
4-1 @ 5.29% (-0.071 -0.07)
5-0 @ 3.36% (0.026 0.03)
3-2 @ 3.33% (-0.118 -0.12)
5-1 @ 2.82% (-0.058 -0.06)
4-2 @ 2.21% (-0.094 -0.09)
6-0 @ 1.49% (0.002 0)
6-1 @ 1.25% (-0.035 -0.03)
5-2 @ 1.18% (-0.058 -0.06)
Other @ 3.63%
Total : 76.07%
1-1 @ 6.74% (0.048 0.05)
2-2 @ 3.75% (-0.106 -0.11)
0-0 @ 3.03% (0.126 0.13)
3-3 @ 0.93% (-0.06 -0.06)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 14.59%
1-2 @ 2.82% (-0.06 -0.06)
0-1 @ 2.53% (0.035 0.03)
0-2 @ 1.06% (-0.015 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.05% (-0.061 -0.06)
Other @ 1.87%
Total : 9.33%

How you voted: B. Leverkusen vs Mainz

Bayer Leverkusen
84.1%
Draw
10.3%
Mainz 05
5.6%
126
Head to Head
Feb 23, 2024 7.30pm
Gameweek 23
B. Leverkusen
2-1
Mainz
Xhaka (3'), Andrich (68')
Frimpong (45+1'), Alonso (45+1'), Tah (49'), Wirtz (74')
Kohr (7')
Onisiwo (42'), Kohr (52'), Zentner (54'), Caci (66'), Mwene (85')
Ngankam (80')
Sep 30, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 6
Mainz
0-3
B. Leverkusen

Fernandes (58'), Gruda (75'), Richter (90+2'), Barreiro (90+4')
Van den Berg (18' og.), Grimaldo (59'), Hofmann (65')
Xhaka (4')
Feb 19, 2023 6.30pm
Gameweek 21
B. Leverkusen
2-3
Mainz
Amiri (32'), Schick (58')
Caci (26'), Barreiro (45+4'), Ingvartsen (82' pen.)
Aug 27, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 4
Mainz
0-3
B. Leverkusen

Burgzorg (70')
Palacios (29'), Frimpong (39', 41')
Hincapie (3'), Andrich (45'), Frimpong (60'), Bakker (76')
Hincapie (77'), Bakker (90+4')
Feb 18, 2022 7.30pm
Gameweek 23
Mainz
3-2
B. Leverkusen
Caricol (57'), Boetius (84'), Ingvartsen (88')
Caricol (66'), Ingvartsen (90+5')
Schick (35'), Alario (74')
Adli (31'), Demirbay (56')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern22174165194655
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen22138149272247
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt22126449292042
4RB Leipzig2210753629737
5Freiburg2211382936-736
6Mainz 05Mainz22105735241135
7Stuttgart2210574033735
8Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach2210483532334
9Wolfsburg229674536933
10Werder Bremen228683542-730
11Borussia DortmundDortmund228593738-129
12Augsburg227782435-1128
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin2266102129-824
14St Pauli2263131825-721
15Hoffenheim2256112945-1621
16Heidenheim2242162545-2014
17VfL BochumVfL Bochum2235142146-2514
18Holstein Kiel2234153457-2313


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