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Bundesliga | Gameweek 23
Feb 23, 2024 at 7.30pm UK
BayArena
Mainz logo

B. Leverkusen
2 - 1
Mainz

Xhaka (3'), Andrich (68')
Frimpong (45+1'), Alonso (45+1'), Tah (49'), Wirtz (74')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Kohr (7')
Onisiwo (42'), Kohr (52'), Zentner (54'), Caci (66'), Mwene (85')
Ngankam (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Mainz 1-0 Augsburg
Saturday, February 17 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Mainz 05

Both teams will be determined to claim all three points for different reasons, and although Mainz celebrated success at the BayArena last season, there is no hiding the fact that Leverkusen enter Friday's contest as firm favourites to come out on top. Alonso and co have shown that they still boast an attacking threat even without the presence of Boniface, and they should ultimately have few problems breaching Mainz's backline en route to claiming a title-boosting victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 69.9%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 12.83%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.58%) and 1-0 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.97%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (3.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Bayer LeverkusenDrawMainz 05
69.9% (0.045000000000002 0.05) 17.27% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01) 12.83% (-0.036 -0.04)
Both teams to score 55.23% (-0.073 -0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.85% (-0.040000000000006 -0.04)35.15% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.84% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)57.16% (0.045000000000002 0.05)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.98% (0.0010000000000048 0)9.02% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
69.28%30.72% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.7% (-0.080999999999996 -0.08)39.29% (0.080999999999996 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24% (-0.074999999999999 -0.07)76% (0.075000000000003 0.08)
Score Analysis
    Bayer Leverkusen 69.89%
    Mainz 05 12.83%
    Draw 17.27%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawMainz 05
2-0 @ 10.25% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.58% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-0 @ 8.53% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
3-0 @ 8.23% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
3-1 @ 7.68% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-0 @ 4.95% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
4-1 @ 4.62%
3-2 @ 3.59% (-0.008 -0.01)
5-0 @ 2.38% (0.0049999999999999 0)
5-1 @ 2.22% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-2 @ 2.16% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
5-2 @ 1.04% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
6-0 @ 0.95% (0.002 0)
Other @ 3.72%
Total : 69.89%
1-1 @ 7.97% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-2 @ 4.47% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-0 @ 3.54% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.12% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 17.27%
1-2 @ 3.72% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-1 @ 3.31%
0-2 @ 1.55% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 1.39% (-0.006 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.16% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 12.83%

How you voted: B. Leverkusen vs Mainz

Bayer Leverkusen
89.4%
Draw
4.5%
Mainz 05
6.1%
132
Head to Head
Sep 30, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 6
Mainz
0-3
B. Leverkusen

Fernandes (58'), Gruda (75'), Richter (90+2'), Barreiro (90+4')
Van den Berg (18' og.), Grimaldo (59'), Hofmann (65')
Xhaka (4')
Feb 19, 2023 6.30pm
Gameweek 21
B. Leverkusen
2-3
Mainz
Amiri (32'), Schick (58')
Caci (26'), Barreiro (45+4'), Ingvartsen (82' pen.)
Aug 27, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 4
Mainz
0-3
B. Leverkusen

Burgzorg (70')
Palacios (29'), Frimpong (39', 41')
Hincapie (3'), Andrich (45'), Frimpong (60'), Bakker (76')
Hincapie (77'), Bakker (90+4')
Feb 18, 2022 7.30pm
Gameweek 23
Mainz
3-2
B. Leverkusen
Caricol (57'), Boetius (84'), Ingvartsen (88')
Caricol (66'), Ingvartsen (90+5')
Schick (35'), Alario (74')
Adli (31'), Demirbay (56')
Sep 25, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 6
B. Leverkusen
1-0
Mainz
Wirtz (62')
Tah (11'), Diaby (44'), Bakker (83'), Alario (90+3')

Lucoqui (44'), Stach (69'), Jae-sung (86')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CBayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen29254074195579
2Bayern MunichBayern29203682364663
3Stuttgart29203667343363
4RB Leipzig29175767333456
5Borussia DortmundDortmund29168557342356
6Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt29101274339442
7Augsburg29109104746139
8Freiburg29116124152-1139
9Hoffenheim29106134957-836
10Heidenheim29810114250-834
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach29710125056-631
12Werder Bremen2987143649-1331
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin2985162545-2029
14Wolfsburg2977153450-1628
15VfL BochumVfL Bochum29512123459-2527
16Mainz 05Mainz29511133047-1726
17FC Koln29410152351-2822
18SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt2928192872-4414


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