Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 23

Feb 23, 2024 at 7.30pm UK

BayArena

B. Leverkusen
2 - 1
Mainz

Xhaka (3'), Andrich (68')
Frimpong (45+1'), Alonso (45+1'), Tah (49'), Wirtz (74')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Kohr (7')
Onisiwo (42'), Kohr (52'), Zentner (54'), Caci (66'), Mwene (85')
Ngankam (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Heidenheim 1-2 B. Leverkusen
Saturday, February 17 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Mainz 05

All competitions

Last Game: Mainz 1-0 Augsburg
Saturday, February 17 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 69.9%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 12.83%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.58%) and 1-0 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.97%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (3.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	Mainz 05
69.9% ( 0.05)	17.27% ( -0.01)	12.83% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 55.23% (

-0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.85% (

-0.04)

35.15% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.84% (

-0.04)

57.16% (

0.05)

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.98% (

9.02% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

69.28%

30.72% (

-0)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.7% (

-0.08)

39.29% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24% (

-0.07)

76% (

0.08)

Score Analysis

Bayer Leverkusen 69.89%

Mainz 05 12.83%

Draw 17.27%

Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	Mainz 05
2-0 @ 10.25% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.58% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.53% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 8.23% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 7.68% ( -0) 4-0 @ 4.95% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 4.62% 3-2 @ 3.59% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 2.38% ( 0) 5-1 @ 2.22% ( -0) 4-2 @ 2.16% ( -0) 5-2 @ 1.04% ( -0) 6-0 @ 0.95% ( 0) Other @ 3.72% Total : 69.89%	1-1 @ 7.97% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.54% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.17% Total : 17.27%	1-2 @ 3.72% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 3.31% 0-2 @ 1.55% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.7% Total : 12.83%