Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 16

Jan 10, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Signal-Iduna-Park

Dortmund
2 - 3
B. Leverkusen

Bynoe-Gittens (12'), Guirassy (79' pen.)
Nmecha (90+5')

FT(HT: 1-3)

Tella (1'), Schick (8', 19')
Schick (45+3'), Tapsoba (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Wolfsburg 1-3 Dortmund
Sunday, December 22 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: B. Leverkusen 5-1 Freiburg
Saturday, December 21 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 39.14%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 37.55% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.47%) and 0-2 (5.28%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
37.55% ( 2.04)	23.3% ( 0.04)	39.14% ( -2.08)

Both teams to score 64.15% (

0.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.61% (

0.04)

37.39% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.39% (

0.04)

59.61% (

-0.04)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.72% (

1.03)

20.27% (

-1.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.37% (

1.61)

52.63% (

-1.61)

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.47% (

-0.9)

19.53% (

0.9)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.57% (

-1.5)

51.43% (

1.5)

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 37.55%

Bayer Leverkusen 39.14%

Draw 23.3%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
2-1 @ 8.23% ( 0.26) 1-0 @ 6.32% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 5.04% ( 0.3) 3-1 @ 4.38% ( 0.27) 3-2 @ 3.58% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 2.68% ( 0.24) 4-1 @ 1.75% ( 0.16) 4-2 @ 1.43% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 1.07% ( 0.13) Other @ 3.07% Total : 37.55%	1-1 @ 10.32% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.72% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 3.96% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.35% Total : 23.3%	1-2 @ 8.43% ( -0.24) 0-1 @ 6.47% ( -0.2) 0-2 @ 5.28% ( -0.32) 1-3 @ 4.59% ( -0.27) 2-3 @ 3.66% ( -0.09) 0-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.26) 1-4 @ 1.87% ( -0.17) 2-4 @ 1.5% ( -0.08) 0-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.15) Other @ 3.3% Total : 39.14%