Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 10

Nov 9, 2024 at 2.30pm UK

Mewa Arena

Mainz
3 - 1
Dortmund

Jae-sung (36'), Burkardt (45+3'), Nebel (54')
Nebel (32'), Kohr (45'), Zentner (86')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Guirassy (40' pen.)
Schlotterbeck (28')
Can (27')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Freiburg 0-0 Mainz
Sunday, November 3 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Dortmund 1-0 Sturm Graz
Tuesday, November 5 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 46.54%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 30.37% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.41%) and 0-2 (6.59%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (7.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
30.37% ( 0.01)	23.08% ( -0.01)	46.54% ( -0)

Both teams to score 62.6% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.54% (

0.04)

38.45% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.25% (

0.04)

60.74% (

-0.04)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.32% (

0.03)

24.67% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.79% (

0.04)

59.21% (

-0.04)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.11% (

0.01)

16.89% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.08% (

0.03)

46.92% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 30.37%

Borussia Dortmund 46.54%

Draw 23.08%

Mainz 05	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 7.26% ( 0) 1-0 @ 5.83% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 4.08% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.39% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.01% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.9% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.18% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 2.67% Total : 30.37%	1-1 @ 10.37% 2-2 @ 6.45% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.17% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.79% ( 0) Other @ 0.31% Total : 23.08%	1-2 @ 9.22% ( -0) 0-1 @ 7.41% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 6.59% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 5.47% ( 0) 0-3 @ 3.91% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.83% ( 0) 1-4 @ 2.43% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.74% 2-4 @ 1.7% ( 0) Other @ 4.24% Total : 46.54%