Mainz 05 will play their first game of the month on Wednesday when they welcome Borussia Dortmund to the MEWA Arena, as they look to kick off March with a victory.
The visitors have been undefeated in their previous four Bundesliga matches, and they remain in the title race this season, being just seven points behind Bayern Munich with a game in hand.
Match preview
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Mainz 05 have been having a strong season so far, as they have achieved more points at this point in the season than they have managed since 2016, showcasing the consistency they have brought to their performances.
However, after their previously scheduled match against Augsburg was postponed, the club have not actually played a game this month, creating a lengthy break since their last outing.
Bo Svensson will likely want to forget about that particular fixture, as it ended in a 3-1 defeat against Union Berlin, with Delano Burgzorg's 90th-minute goal being nothing more than a consolation.
To make matters worse, Dominik Kohr was also sent off in the match, which is something that will have an impact on them for this game, where the club will be hoping to get straight back to winning ways.
At home, Mainz have been one of the strongest teams in the Bundesliga this season, having only lost once, and they shall be looking to continue that record in midweek.
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Borussia Dortmund will take some belief from the fact that they took all three points during the last meeting between the two teams earlier this season, which the squad shall be hoping to repeat.
A brace from Erling Braut Haaland and a goal by Marco Reus proved to be enough on the day, with the fixture finishing 3-1, and taking a similar result would help their race for the title.
Marco Rose's men are currently second placed in the league, just seven points behind Bayern Munich, but with a game in hand, they will certainly have the belief that they can push all the way.
Dortmund secured three points at the weekend in their most recent outing, with a goal from Marius Wolf being enough to separate them and Arminia Bielefeld, with the match ending 1-0.
However, away from the home Rose's team have not been as consistent, only winning half of their matches, losing four and drawing twice, which is something that they will want to address.
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Team News
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After such a lengthy spell without a game, Mainz 05 should be able to benefit from having had a break in terms of fitness, with Jeremiah St Juste potentially being available again after a period on the sidelines.
Kohr will be missing though due suspension, which will lead to at least one change in midfield, with Kevin Stoger being an option for Svensson heading into this match.
The visitors have been dealing with plenty of issues lately in terms of fitness, as Thomas Meunier, Manuel Akanji, Mats Hummels, and Raphael Guerreiro were all unavailable at the weekend due to illness or COVID-19 cases.
Their potential return will depend on individual circumstances, which could see the squad stretched once again, while Haaland was only fit enough to return from the bench, as he continues to push for a return to the starting XI.
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zenter; Niakhate, Hack, Bell; Widmer, Stach, Caricol; Stoger, Lee, Burkardt; Onisiwo
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Passlack, Can, Pongracic, Schulz; Dahoud, Witsel; Wolf, Hazard, Bellingham; Haaland
We say: Mainz 05 1-2 Borussia Dortmund
After such a lengthy break, Mainz 05 will be looking to get things back on track for the second half of the season, but they face a stern test against a team fighting for the title.
Borussia Dortmund are in good form within the league, and as they continue to push Bayern Munich, the squad should be able to secure a victory here in what could be a close contest.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 46.95%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 29.06% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.37%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
