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Bundesliga

Mainz logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 7
Oct 19, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Mewa Arena
Leipzig logo

Mainz
0 - 2
RB Leipzig


Nebel (90+1')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Simons (20'), Orban (37')
Haidara (53'), Vermeeren (60'), Elmas (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and RB Leipzig, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last Game: St Pauli 0-3 Mainz
Saturday, October 5 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

RB Leipzig

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Heidenheim 0-1 RB Leipzig
Sunday, October 6 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 39.98%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 35.79% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.65%) and 0-2 (5.94%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05DrawRB Leipzig
35.79% (0.137 0.14)24.22% (0.032 0.03)39.98% (-0.173 -0.17)
Both teams to score 60.47% (-0.10700000000001 -0.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.9% (-0.147 -0.15)42.1% (0.14299999999999 0.14)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.5% (-0.149 -0.15)64.5% (0.14400000000001 0.14)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.71% (0.0049999999999955 0)23.29% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.77% (0.009999999999998 0.01)57.22% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
RB Leipzig Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.83% (-0.14700000000001 -0.15)21.17% (0.142 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.96% (-0.227 -0.23)54.03% (0.223 0.22)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 35.79%
    RB Leipzig 39.98%
    Draw 24.22%
Mainz 05DrawRB Leipzig
2-1 @ 8.13% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
1-0 @ 7.18% (0.048 0.05)
2-0 @ 5.23% (0.036 0.04)
3-1 @ 3.95% (0.011 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.07% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-0 @ 2.54% (0.018 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.44% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 1.12% (-0.002 -0)
4-0 @ 0.93% (0.007 0.01)
Other @ 2.21%
Total : 35.79%
1-1 @ 11.15% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
2-2 @ 6.31% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-0 @ 4.93% (0.031000000000001 0.03)
3-3 @ 1.59% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 24.22%
1-2 @ 8.66% (-0.017999999999999 -0.02)
0-1 @ 7.65% (0.016 0.02)
0-2 @ 5.94% (-0.014 -0.01)
1-3 @ 4.48% (-0.029 -0.03)
2-3 @ 3.27% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-3 @ 3.08% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.74% (-0.019 -0.02)
2-4 @ 1.27% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.19% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 2.7%
Total : 39.98%

How you voted: Mainz vs RB Leipzig

Mainz 05
19.7%
Draw
14.8%
RB Leipzig
65.6%
61
Head to Head
Mar 30, 2024 2.30pm
Gameweek 27
RB Leipzig
0-0
Mainz
Lukeba (67'), Simons (86')
Caci (20'), Mwene (27'), Amiri (34'), Barreiro (70'), Hanche-Olsen (79')
> Preview
Nov 4, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 10
Mainz
2-0
RB Leipzig
Jae-sung (76'), Barreiro (80')
Caci (39'), Barkok (88'), van den Berg (90')

Klostermann (51')
> Preview
Apr 1, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 26
RB Leipzig
0-3
Mainz
Ingvartsen (9'), Ajorque (57'), Kohr (67')
> Preview
Oct 8, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 9
Mainz
1-1
RB Leipzig
Ingvartsen (45')
Nkunku (80')
> Preview
Jan 8, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 18
RB Leipzig
4-1
Mainz
Silva (21' pen., 61'), Szoboszlai (47'), Nkunku (58')
Jae-sung (57')
Jae-sung (16'), Bell (59')
Hack (19')
> Preview