Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 51.21%. A win for Heidenheim had a probability of 24.86% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.67%) and 2-0 (8.65%). The likeliest Heidenheim win was 0-1 (6.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.