Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 33

May 11, 2024 at 5.30pm UK

Mewa Arena

Mainz
3 - 0
Dortmund

Barreiro (12'), Jae-sung (19', 23')
Hanche-Olsen (45+1'), Barreiro (56')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Reus (41'), Schlotterbeck (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions

Last Game: Heidenheim 1-1 Mainz
Sunday, May 5 at 6.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: PSG 0-1 Dortmund
Tuesday, May 7 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 49.24%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 28.34% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.15%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (6.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
49.24% ( -0.01)	22.41% ( 0)	28.34% ( 0)

Both teams to score 63.62% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.49% (

-0.01)

36.5% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.35% (

-0.01)

58.65% (

0.01)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.82% (

-0.01)

15.17% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.21% (

-0.01)

43.79% (

0.01)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.01% (

-0)

24.99% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.36% (

-0)

59.64% (

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 49.24%

Borussia Dortmund 28.34%

Draw 22.41%

Mainz 05	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 9.35% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.15% ( 0) 2-0 @ 6.74% 3-1 @ 5.88% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.24% ( -0) 3-2 @ 4.07% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.77% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.92% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.04% ( -0) Other @ 4.09% Total : 49.24%	1-1 @ 9.92% ( 0) 2-2 @ 6.48% 0-0 @ 3.79% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.88% ( -0) Other @ 0.34% Total : 22.41%	1-2 @ 6.88% ( 0) 0-1 @ 5.26% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.65% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.18% 2-3 @ 3% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.69% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.1% 2-4 @ 1.04% Other @ 2.56% Total : 28.34%