Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 47.98%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 30% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.27%) and 2-0 (6.06%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (7.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.37%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.