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Bundesliga | Gameweek 25
Mar 16, 2022 at 5.30pm UK
Coface Arena
Dortmund logo

Mainz 05
0 - 1
Dortmund


Bell (43'), Stach (49'), Lucoqui (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Witsel (87')
Wolf (43'), Dahoud (44'), Pongracic (45+3'), Witsel (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Mainz 05 2-2 Frankfurt
Saturday, May 14 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Next Game: Erzgebirge Aue vs. Mainz 05
Friday, July 29 at 1am in DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Dortmund 2-1 Hertha Berlin
Saturday, May 14 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Next Game: 1860 Munich vs. Dortmund
Friday, July 29 at 1am in DFB-Pokal

We said: Mainz 05 1-2 Borussia Dortmund

After such a lengthy break, Mainz 05 will be looking to get things back on track for the second half of the season, but they face a stern test against a team fighting for the title. Borussia Dortmund are in good form within the league, and as they continue to push Bayern Munich, the squad should be able to secure a victory here in what could be a close contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 46.95%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 29.06% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.37%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05DrawBorussia Dortmund
29.06%23.99%46.95%
Both teams to score 58.52%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.54%43.46%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.14%65.85%
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.96%28.04%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.3%63.69%
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.32%18.67%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.99%50.01%
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 29.06%
    Borussia Dortmund 46.95%
    Draw 23.98%
Mainz 05DrawBorussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 7.1%
1-0 @ 6.66%
2-0 @ 4.23%
3-1 @ 3.01%
3-2 @ 2.53%
3-0 @ 1.79%
4-1 @ 0.96%
Other @ 2.77%
Total : 29.06%
1-1 @ 11.17%
2-2 @ 5.96%
0-0 @ 5.24%
3-3 @ 1.41%
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 23.98%
1-2 @ 9.37%
0-1 @ 8.79%
0-2 @ 7.37%
1-3 @ 5.24%
0-3 @ 4.12%
2-3 @ 3.33%
1-4 @ 2.2%
0-4 @ 1.73%
2-4 @ 1.4%
Other @ 3.39%
Total : 46.95%

How you voted: Mainz 05 vs Dortmund

Mainz 05
13.4%
Draw
13.4%
Borussia Dortmund
73.2%
82
Head to Head
Oct 16, 2021 2.30pm
Dortmund
3-1
Mainz 05
Reus (3'), Braut Haaland (54' pen., 90+4')
Schulz (13'), Akanji (35')
Burkardt (87')
Bell (50'), Svensson (54'), Ingvartsen (64'), Tauer (71'), Niakhate (89')
May 16, 2021 5pm
Mainz 05
1-3
Dortmund
Quaison (90+1' pen.)
Guerreiro (23'), Reus (42'), Brandt (80')
Jan 16, 2021 2.30pm
Dortmund
1-1
Mainz 05
Meunier (73')
Can (68')
Oztunali (57')
Mwene (40'), Hack (47')
Jun 17, 2020 7.30pm
Dec 14, 2019 2.30pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen26224066184870
2Bayern MunichBayern26193478314760
3Stuttgart26182660312956
4Borussia DortmundDortmund26148453322150
5RB Leipzig26154760322849
6Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt26101064235740
7Augsburg269894342135
8Hoffenheim2696114450-633
9Freiburg2696113648-1233
10Werder Bremen2686123541-630
11Heidenheim2678113544-929
12Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach26610104650-428
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin2684142542-1728
14Wolfsburg2667133144-1325
15VfL BochumVfL Bochum26510113054-2425
16Mainz 05Mainz26310132246-2419
17FC Koln2639142047-2718
18SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt2627172665-3913


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