DFB-Pokal | Second Round

Oct 30, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Mewa Arena

Mainz
0 - 4
Bayern

Kohr (20'), Nebel (45+3'), Jenz (45+3'), Nebel (64')

FT(HT: 0-4)

Musiala (2', 37', 45+4'), Sane (45+1')
Laimer (43')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's DFB-Pokal clash between Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions

DFB-Pokal

Last Game: Mainz 1-1 Borussia M'bach
Friday, October 25 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Bayern Munich

All competitions

DFB-Pokal

Last Game: VfL Bochum 0-5 Bayern
Sunday, October 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 53.36%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 25.71% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.52%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (6.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	Bayern Munich
25.71% ( -1.81)	20.93% ( -0.14)	53.36% ( 1.95)

Both teams to score 66.73% (

-1.28)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

68.57% (

-0.94)

31.43% (

0.94)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

47.11% (

-1.11)

52.89% (

1.11)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.91% (

-1.68)

24.09% (

1.68)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.63% (

-2.45)

58.37% (

2.45)

Bayern Munich Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.9% (

0.25)

12.1% (

-0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.35% (

0.52)

37.65% (

-0.52)

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 25.71%

Bayern Munich 53.36%

Draw 20.93%

Mainz 05	Draw	Bayern Munich
2-1 @ 6.24% ( -0.24) 1-0 @ 4.15% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.13% ( -0.25) 3-1 @ 2.96% ( -0.27) 2-0 @ 2.95% ( -0.14) 3-0 @ 1.4% ( -0.14) 4-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.15) 4-1 @ 1.05% ( -0.15) Other @ 2.72% Total : 25.71%	1-1 @ 8.76% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 6.59% ( -0.19) 0-0 @ 2.91% ( 0.15) 3-3 @ 2.2% ( -0.15) Other @ 0.47% Total : 20.93%	1-2 @ 9.25% ( 0.2) 1-3 @ 6.52% ( 0.2) 0-2 @ 6.5% ( 0.45) 0-1 @ 6.15% ( 0.37) 2-3 @ 4.64% ( -0.09) 0-3 @ 4.58% ( 0.36) 1-4 @ 3.44% ( 0.14) 2-4 @ 2.45% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 2.42% ( 0.21) 1-5 @ 1.45% ( 0.07) 3-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.07) 2-5 @ 1.03% ( 0) 0-5 @ 1.02% ( 0.1) Other @ 2.75% Total : 53.36%