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Bundesliga | Gameweek 29
Apr 22, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
Coface Arena
Bayern logo

Mainz
3 - 1
Bayern

Ajorque (65'), Barreiro (73'), Caricol (79')
Caricol (57'), Kohr (60')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Mane (29')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: FC Koln 1-1 Mainz
Saturday, April 15 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Bayern 1-1 Man City
Wednesday, April 19 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Mainz 05 1-2 Bayern Munich

Mainz have been thrashed in both of the previous two meetings with Bayern this season, but a tighter affair could be on the cards on Saturday considering the resurgent form of the hosts and recent setbacks suffered by the visitors. Nevertheless, Bayern will be regarded as favourites to come out on top and they should have enough quality in the final third to outscore their opponents at the Mewa Arena. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 58.48%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 21.22% and a draw had a probability of 20.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.74%) and 0-1 (7.13%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (5.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.

Result
Mainz 05DrawBayern Munich
21.22% (0.0010000000000012 0) 20.3% (0.0019999999999989 0) 58.48%
Both teams to score 63.08% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.33% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)33.67% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.51% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)55.49% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.21% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)28.8% (0.0040000000000013 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.36% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)64.65% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.6%11.41% (0.0020000000000007 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.83% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)36.17% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 21.22%
    Bayern Munich 58.48%
    Draw 20.3%
Mainz 05DrawBayern Munich
2-1 @ 5.53%
1-0 @ 4.09% (0.0010000000000003 0)
2-0 @ 2.55%
3-2 @ 2.49%
3-1 @ 2.29%
3-0 @ 1.06%
Other @ 3.22%
Total : 21.22%
1-1 @ 8.88% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-2 @ 6% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-0 @ 3.29% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 1.8% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.34%
Total : 20.3%
1-2 @ 9.64%
0-2 @ 7.74% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-1 @ 7.13% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-3 @ 6.97%
0-3 @ 5.6% (0.0010000000000003 0)
2-3 @ 4.34%
1-4 @ 3.79%
0-4 @ 3.04%
2-4 @ 2.36%
1-5 @ 1.64% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-5 @ 1.32%
2-5 @ 1.02%
3-4 @ 0.98%
Other @ 2.91%
Total : 58.48%

How you voted: Mainz vs Bayern

Mainz 05
19.7%
Draw
6.6%
Bayern Munich
73.8%
61
Head to Head
Feb 1, 2023 7.45pm
Round of 16
Mainz
0-4
Bayern

Widmer (24'), Hack (49')
Svensson (82'), Hack (86')
Maxim Choupo-Moting (17'), Musiala (30'), Sane (44'), Davies (83')
Muller (38')
Oct 29, 2022 2.30pm
gameweek 12
Bayern
6-2
Mainz
Gnabry (5'), Musiala (28'), Mane (43'), Goretzka (58'), Tel (79'), Maxim Choupo-Moting (86')
Widmer (45+4'), Ingvartsen (82')
Fernandes (34')
Apr 30, 2022 2.30pm
gameweek 32
Mainz
3-1
Bayern
Burkardt (18'), Niakhate (27'), Barreiro (57')
Lewandowski (33')
Kimmich (43'), Hernandez (65'), Pavard (73'), Sane (86')
Dec 11, 2021 2.30pm
gameweek 15
Bayern
2-1
Mainz
Coman (53'), Musiala (74')
Musiala (27'), Sane (36'), Hernandez (56')
Onisiwo (22')
Stach (59'), Hack (89'), Stoger (90+1')
Apr 24, 2021 2.30pm
gameweek 31
Mainz
2-1
Bayern
Burkardt (3'), Quaison (37')
Mwene (58'), St Juste (59'), da Costa (87')
Lewandowski (90+4')
Boateng (36'), Goretzka (41'), Alaba (42'), Lewandowski (73')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
1.15am
Rams
@
49ers
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern13103041103133
2Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1383233181527
3Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1375130201026
4RB Leipzig137332114724
5Wolfsburg136342922721
6Borussia DortmundDortmund136342420421
7Freiburg136341717021
8Stuttgart135532623320
9Mainz 05Mainz135442318519
10Werder Bremen135442024-419
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach135351918118
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin134451214-216
13Augsburg134451625-916
14Hoffenheim133461825-713
15St Pauli133281117-611
16Heidenheim133191728-1110
17Holstein Kiel1312101333-205
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1302111034-242


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