DFB-Pokal | First Round
Aug 16, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Donaustadion
Bayern logo

Ulm
0 - 4
Bayern


Hyrylainen (29'), Reichert (45')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Muller (12', 15'), Coman (79'), Kane (90+3')
Kimmich (74')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's DFB-Pokal clash between SSV Ulm and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Jahn 1-0 Ulm
Friday, August 9 at 5.30pm in 2.Bundesliga
Last Game: Bayern 3-0 Swarovski
Tuesday, August 13 at 5pm in Club Friendlies 1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 70.25%. A draw had a probability of 16.2% and a win for SSV Ulm had a probability of 13.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.3%) and 1-3 (8.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.9%), while for a SSV Ulm win it was 2-1 (3.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
SSV UlmDrawBayern Munich
13.53% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)16.22% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)70.25% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)
Both teams to score 61.89% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
72.09% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01)27.92% (0.012 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
51.37% (-0.012 -0.01)48.64% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
SSV Ulm Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.64%33.36% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.02%69.98% (0.0020000000000095 0)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
92.86% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)7.14% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
74.02% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)25.99% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Score Analysis
    SSV Ulm 13.53%
    Bayern Munich 70.25%
    Draw 16.22%
SSV UlmDrawBayern Munich
2-1 @ 3.79% (0.0020000000000002 0)
1-0 @ 2.62% (0.0020000000000002 0)
3-2 @ 1.83%
2-0 @ 1.44% (0.0010000000000001 0)
3-1 @ 1.39% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.47%
Total : 13.53%
1-1 @ 6.9% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-2 @ 5% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-0 @ 2.38% (0.0020000000000002 0)
3-3 @ 1.61%
Other @ 0.33%
Total : 16.22%
1-2 @ 9.11% (0.0010000000000012 0)
0-2 @ 8.3% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-3 @ 8.01% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
0-3 @ 7.3% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-1 @ 6.29% (0.0029999999999992 0)
1-4 @ 5.29% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-4 @ 4.82% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-3 @ 4.4% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-4 @ 2.9% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-5 @ 2.79% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-5 @ 2.54% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-5 @ 1.53% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-6 @ 1.23% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
0-6 @ 1.12% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
3-4 @ 1.06% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 3.57%
Total : 70.25%

How you voted: Ulm vs Bayern

SSV Ulm
13.3%
Draw
10.0%
Bayern Munich
76.7%
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