Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 41.25%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 33.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 0-1 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.