Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 52.6%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 25.31% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.71%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 1-2 (6.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.