Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 45.82%. A win for Nuremberg had a probability of 32.67% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.66%) and 1-0 (5.19%). The likeliest Nuremberg win was 1-2 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Hoffenheim in this match.