Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 42.75%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 35% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.65%) and 1-3 (5.22%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 2-1 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.3%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.