Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 43.82%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 33.68% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.1%) and 2-0 (5.55%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 1-2 (7.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.61%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.