Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 5

Sep 28, 2024 at 2.30pm UK

Schwarzwald-Stadion

Freiburg
0 - 3
St Pauli

Ginter (35'), Kubler (44'), Hofler (90+3')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Saad (12', 72'), Afolayan (45')
Eggestein (53'), Saliakas (63'), Banks (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Freiburg and St Pauli, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Freiburg

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Heidenheim 0-3 Freiburg
Saturday, September 21 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

St Pauli

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: St Pauli 0-0 RB Leipzig
Sunday, September 22 at 6.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 42.32%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 33.12% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.46%) and 0-2 (6.6%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 2-1 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.

Result
Freiburg	Draw	St Pauli
33.12% ( -0.01)	24.56% ( 0.13)	42.32% ( -0.13)

Both teams to score 58.6% (

-0.48)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.74% (

-0.63)

44.26% (

0.63)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.36% (

-0.61)

66.63% (

0.61)

Freiburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.17% (

-0.31)

25.82% (

0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.21% (

-0.42)

60.79% (

0.41)

St Pauli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79% (

-0.33)

21% (

0.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.23% (

-0.51)

53.77% (

0.51)

Score Analysis

Freiburg 33.12%

St Pauli 42.32%

Draw 24.55%

Freiburg	Draw	St Pauli
2-1 @ 7.76% 1-0 @ 7.34% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 4.97% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 3.5% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 2.24% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.19% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.47% Total : 33.12%	1-1 @ 11.45% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 6.05% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 5.42% ( 0.15) 3-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.55%	1-2 @ 8.94% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.46% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 6.6% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 4.65% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 3.44% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.15% ( -0.06) 1-4 @ 1.82% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 1.34% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.23% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.69% Total : 42.32%