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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 56.17%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 21.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.35%) and 0-2 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.34%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 2-1 (5.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Union Berlin | Draw | St Pauli |
| 21.67% ( | 22.17% | 56.17% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.01% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.08% ( | 41.92% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.67% ( | 64.33% ( |
| Union Berlin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.9% ( | 33.1% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.3% ( | 69.7% ( |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.22% ( | 14.78% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.97% ( | 43.03% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Union Berlin | Draw | St Pauli |
| 2-1 @ 5.72% 1-0 @ 5.41% ( 2-0 @ 2.99% 3-1 @ 2.11% ( 3-2 @ 2.01% ( 3-0 @ 1.1% Other @ 2.33% Total : 21.67% | 1-1 @ 10.34% ( 2-2 @ 5.47% ( 0-0 @ 4.89% ( 3-3 @ 1.28% ( Other @ 0.19% Total : 22.17% | 1-2 @ 9.89% 0-1 @ 9.35% ( 0-2 @ 8.94% ( 1-3 @ 6.3% ( 0-3 @ 5.7% ( 2-3 @ 3.48% ( 1-4 @ 3.01% ( 0-4 @ 2.72% 2-4 @ 1.67% ( 1-5 @ 1.15% 0-5 @ 1.04% Other @ 2.91% Total : 56.17% |