Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 49.54%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 27.71% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.73%) and 2-0 (7.12%). The likeliest Lyon win was 1-2 (6.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.

Result
St Pauli	Draw	Lyon
49.54% ( 0.01)	22.75% ( 0.01)	27.71% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 61.86% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.39% (

-0.05)

38.61% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.09% (

-0.05)

60.91% (

0.05)

St Pauli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.15% (

-0.01)

15.85% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.96% (

-0.02)

45.04% (

0.03)

Lyon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.5% (

-0.04)

26.49% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.31% (

-0.06)

61.68% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

St Pauli 49.54%

Lyon 27.71%

Draw 22.75%

St Pauli	Draw	Lyon
2-1 @ 9.46% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.73% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.12% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.81% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.38% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.86% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.68% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.02% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.78% ( -0) 5-1 @ 0.99% ( -0) Other @ 3.72% Total : 49.54%	1-1 @ 10.27% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.29% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.2% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.71% ( -0) Other @ 0.29% Total : 22.75%	1-2 @ 6.82% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.58% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.7% 1-3 @ 3.02% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.78% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.64% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.92% ( -0) Other @ 2.23% Total : 27.71%