Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 41.05%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 33.9% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (6.59%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 0-1 (7.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.

Result
St Pauli	Draw	Atalanta BC
41.05% ( 0.14)	25.05% ( -0.03)	33.9% ( -0.11)

Both teams to score 57.12% (

0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.72% (

0.1)

46.28% (

-0.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.43% (

0.09)

68.57% (

-0.09)

St Pauli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.54% (

0.11)

22.46% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.99% (

0.16)

56.01% (

-0.17)

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.67% (

-0.02)

26.33% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.54% (

-0.03)

61.46% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

St Pauli 41.05%

Atalanta BC 33.9%

Draw 25.04%

St Pauli	Draw	Atalanta BC
1-0 @ 8.83% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.8% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 6.59% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 4.38% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 3.28% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.92% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.64% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.23% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.09% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.29% Total : 41.05%	1-1 @ 11.78% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.91% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.87% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.04%	0-1 @ 7.89% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 7.87% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 5.27% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 3.5% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.61% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.34% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.17% ( -0) Other @ 3.25% Total : 33.9%