Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 39.23%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 34.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.61%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 0-1 (8.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Parma would win this match.