Primeira Liga | Gameweek 11

Nov 10, 2024 at 8.45pm UK

Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Benfica
4 - 1
Porto

Fernandez (30'), di Maria (56', 82' pen.), Perez (61' og.)
Fernandez (19'), Kokcu (84')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Omorodion (44')
Varela (19'), Vieira (51'), Fernandes (52'), Mario (79'), Borges (90+3'), Gonzalez (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Benfica and Porto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Benfica

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Bayern 1-0 Benfica
Wednesday, November 6 at 8.15pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Porto

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Lazio 2-1 Porto
Thursday, November 7 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 58.3%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Porto had a probability of 19.73%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 2-0 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.35%), while for a Porto win it was 0-1 (5.39%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
Benfica	Draw	Porto
58.3% ( 2)	21.97% ( -0.68)	19.73% ( -1.33)

Both teams to score 54.65% (

0.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.38% (

1.21)

43.62% (

-1.21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.99% (

1.17)

66.01% (

-1.18)

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.34% (

1.07)

14.66% (

-1.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.19% (

2.02)

42.81% (

-2.03)

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.03% (

-0.64)

35.96% (

0.64)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.25% (

-0.66)

72.74% (

0.66)

Score Analysis

Benfica 58.3%

Porto 19.73%

Draw 21.96%

Benfica	Draw	Porto
1-0 @ 10.12% ( -0.15) 2-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 9.72% ( 0.21) 3-1 @ 6.36% ( 0.26) 3-0 @ 6.22% ( 0.36) 3-2 @ 3.25% ( 0.08) 4-1 @ 3.05% ( 0.23) 4-0 @ 2.99% ( 0.28) 4-2 @ 1.56% ( 0.09) 5-1 @ 1.17% ( 0.13) 5-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.14) Other @ 2.77% Total : 58.3%	1-1 @ 10.35% ( -0.34) 0-0 @ 5.27% ( -0.29) 2-2 @ 5.08% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.15% Total : 21.96%	0-1 @ 5.39% ( -0.39) 1-2 @ 5.29% ( -0.27) 0-2 @ 2.76% ( -0.25) 1-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.1) Other @ 1.81% Total : 19.73%