Primeira Liga | Gameweek 11
Nov 10, 2024 at 8.45pm UK
Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Benfica4 - 1Porto
We said: Benfica 3-2 Porto
In the first edition of the heated rivalry between Benfica and Porto this season, we anticipate an end-to-end affair at the Estadio da Luz as both sides look to get the better of each other and move within touching distance of league leaders Sporting Lisbon. Home advantage gives Benfica a slight edge, and while we expect Porto to put up a fight this weekend, we are backing Lage's men to come away with the desired result. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 58.3%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Porto had a probability of 19.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 2-0 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.35%), while for a Porto win it was 0-1 (5.39%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Porto |
58.3% ( 2) | 21.97% ( -0.68) | 19.73% ( -1.33) |
| Both teams to score 54.65% ( 0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
