Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 58.4%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 18.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.89%) and 1-2 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for a Boavista win it was 1-0 (6.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.