Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 68.06%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Santa Clara had a probability of 12.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.87%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.18%), while for a Santa Clara win it was 0-1 (4.38%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.