Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 48.3%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 24.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.79%) and 1-2 (8.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.67%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-0 (9.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santa Clara would win this match.