Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 41.52%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 32.17% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.72%) and 0-2 (7.3%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 1-0 (8.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.