Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 31

Apr 27, 2024 at 2.30pm UK

Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1

RB Leipzig
4 - 1
Dortmund

Openda (23'), Sesko (45+2'), Simakan (46'), Baumgartner (80')
Simakan (37')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Sancho (20')
Sancho (37'), Schlotterbeck (76')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

RB Leipzig

All competitions

Last Game: Heidenheim 1-2 RB Leipzig
Saturday, April 20 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Dortmund 1-1 B. Leverkusen
Sunday, April 21 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: RB Leipzig 2-1 Borussia Dortmund

Even though Saturday's game ideally should be tricky to call because of Leipzig's recent outstanding run on home turf and Dortmund losing one on the road all season, BVB possibly having an eye on their first Champions League semi-final in 11 years could mean Rose's troops nick maximum points to complete the double over Die Borussen this term. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 60.28%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 19.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.24%) and 1-0 (7.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.89%), while for a Borussia Dortmund win it was 1-2 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.

Result
RB Leipzig	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
60.28% ( 0.05)	20.02% ( 0.01)	19.7% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 61.55% (

-0.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.46% (

-0.13)

34.53% (

0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.53% (

-0.15)

56.46% (

0.14)

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.8% (

-0.03)

11.19% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

64.29% (

-0.06)

35.71% (

0.05)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.31% (

-0.13)

30.68% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.06% (

-0.16)

66.94% (

0.16)

Score Analysis

RB Leipzig 60.28%

Borussia Dortmund 19.7%

Draw 20.02%

RB Leipzig	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.24% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 7.52% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 7.1% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.01% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 4.2% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 3.89% ( -0) 4-0 @ 3.29% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.3% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.7% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.44% ( 0) 5-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.01) 4-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.95% Total : 60.28%	1-1 @ 8.89% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.75% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.44% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.65% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.3% Total : 20.02%	1-2 @ 5.25% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.06% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 2.4% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 0.94% ( -0) Other @ 2.73% Total : 19.7%