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Bundesliga | Gameweek 14
Dec 9, 2023 at 5.30pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
Leipzig logo
Dortmund
2 - 3
RB Leipzig
Sule (45+6'), Fullkrug (90+3')
Ozcan (60')
Hummels (15')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Bensebaini (32' og.), Baumgartner (54'), Poulsen (90+1')
Simakan (35'), Simons (61'), Openda (66')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: RB Leipzig 2-1 Heidenheim
Saturday, December 2 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-4 RB Leipzig

Goals are to be expected in this highly-anticipated contest as the net has rippled at least three times in 10 of the last 14 meetings between these two teams. Leipzig have had plenty of joy over Dortmund in the last few years and we feel that Rose's men, refreshed after a week off, have the firepower to cause problems in the final third once again when they face a depleted and deflated BVB outfit who have been conceding goals for fun of late. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 44.5%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 33.51% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.57%) and 3-1 (5.46%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-2 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawRB Leipzig
44.5% (-0.091000000000001 -0.09) 21.98% (0.012999999999998 0.01) 33.51% (0.072000000000003 0.07)
Both teams to score 68.38% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
68.47% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)31.53% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
46.99% (-0.064 -0.06)53.01% (0.060000000000002 0.06)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.04% (-0.055999999999997 -0.06)14.96% (0.051 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.62% (-0.1 -0.1)43.37% (0.094999999999999 0.09)
RB Leipzig Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.41% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)19.59% (-0.013000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.48% (0.016999999999996 0.02)51.52% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 44.5%
    RB Leipzig 33.51%
    Draw 21.98%
Borussia DortmundDrawRB Leipzig
2-1 @ 8.62% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-0 @ 5.57% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-1 @ 5.46% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-0 @ 5.29% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
3-2 @ 4.45% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-0 @ 3.35% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.59% (-0.01 -0.01)
4-2 @ 2.11% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.59% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
4-3 @ 1.15% (-0.004 -0)
5-1 @ 0.99% (-0.005 -0.01)
Other @ 3.33%
Total : 44.5%
1-1 @ 9.07% (0.012 0.01)
2-2 @ 7.03% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-0 @ 2.93% (0.008 0.01)
3-3 @ 2.42% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.53%
Total : 21.98%
1-2 @ 7.4% (0.013 0.01)
0-1 @ 4.78% (0.015 0.01)
1-3 @ 4.02% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
0-2 @ 3.89% (0.014 0.01)
2-3 @ 3.82% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-3 @ 2.12% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.64% (0.004 0)
2-4 @ 1.56% (0.002 0)
3-4 @ 0.99% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 3.31%
Total : 33.51%

How you voted: Dortmund vs RB Leipzig

Borussia Dortmund
44.2%
Draw
20.9%
RB Leipzig
34.9%
86
Head to Head
Apr 5, 2023 7.45pm
Quarter-Finals
RB Leipzig
2-0
Dortmund
Werner (22'), Orban (90+8')
Mar 3, 2023 7.30pm
Gameweek 23
Dortmund
2-1
RB Leipzig
Reus (21' pen.), Can (39')
Forsberg (74')
Sep 10, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 6
RB Leipzig
3-0
Dortmund
Orban (6'), Szoboszlai (45'), Haidara (84')
Apr 2, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 28
Dortmund
1-4
RB Leipzig
Malen (84')
Hazard (45'), Can (80'), Malen (88')
Laimer (21', 30'), Nkunku (58'), Olmo (86')
Kampl (54')
Nov 6, 2021 5.30pm
Gameweek 11
RB Leipzig
2-1
Dortmund
Nkunku (29'), Poulsen (68')
Adams (40'), Poulsen (65'), Szoboszlai (88')
Reus (52')
Bellingham (31'), Reus (31'), Witsel (38'), Meunier (55'), Moukoko (89')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen23194059164361
2Bayern MunichBayern23172463263753
3Stuttgart23152652292347
4Borussia DortmundDortmund22118344271741
5RB Leipzig23124749301940
6Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt228953428633
7Werder Bremen238693235-330
8Freiburg228592940-1129
9Heidenheim237793340-728
10Hoffenheim227693841-327
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach2367104145-425
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin2374122337-1425
13VfL BochumVfL Bochum2351082846-1825
14Wolfsburg2266102634-824
15Augsburg225893140-923
16FC Koln2338121637-2117
17Mainz 05Mainz2329121837-1915
18SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt2327142452-2813

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