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Bundesliga

Mainz logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 10
Nov 4, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
OPEL ARENA
Leipzig logo

Mainz
2 - 0
RB Leipzig

Jae-sung (76'), Barreiro (80')
Caci (39'), Barkok (88'), van den Berg (90')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Klostermann (51')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and RB Leipzig, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Hertha Berlin 3-0 Mainz
Wednesday, November 1 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal

RB Leipzig

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Wolfsburg 1-0 RB Leipzig
Tuesday, October 31 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 64.04%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 16.02%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.91%) and 0-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.36%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 2-1 (4.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.

Result
Mainz 05DrawRB Leipzig
16.02% (0.13 0.13)19.93% (0.104 0.1)64.04% (-0.229 -0.23)
Both teams to score 54.18% (-0.061999999999998 -0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.35% (-0.225 -0.23)40.65% (0.23 0.23)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.96% (-0.232 -0.23)63.04% (0.238 0.24)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.58% (0.022999999999996 0.02)38.42% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.83% (0.021000000000001 0.02)75.17% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
RB Leipzig Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.98% (-0.128 -0.13)12.02% (0.133 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.52% (-0.277 -0.28)37.48% (0.282 0.28)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 16.02%
    RB Leipzig 64.04%
    Draw 19.93%
Mainz 05DrawRB Leipzig
2-1 @ 4.48% (0.029 0.03)
1-0 @ 4.42% (0.048999999999999 0.05)
2-0 @ 2.11% (0.025 0.02)
3-2 @ 1.51% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-1 @ 1.43% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 2.08%
Total : 16.02%
1-1 @ 9.36% (0.055 0.05)
2-2 @ 4.74% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.62% (0.048 0.05)
3-3 @ 1.07% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 19.93%
0-2 @ 10.36%
1-2 @ 9.91% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
0-1 @ 9.78% (0.052 0.05)
0-3 @ 7.32% (-0.037 -0.04)
1-3 @ 7% (-0.032 -0.03)
0-4 @ 3.88% (-0.04 -0.04)
1-4 @ 3.71% (-0.036 -0.04)
2-3 @ 3.35% (-0.013 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.77% (-0.016 -0.02)
0-5 @ 1.64% (-0.026 -0.03)
1-5 @ 1.57% (-0.023 -0.02)
Other @ 3.74%
Total : 64.04%

How you voted: Mainz vs RB Leipzig

Mainz 05
6.0%
Draw
4.5%
RB Leipzig
89.6%
67
Head to Head
Apr 1, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 26
RB Leipzig
0-3
Mainz
Ingvartsen (9'), Ajorque (57'), Kohr (67')
> Preview
Oct 8, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 9
Mainz
1-1
RB Leipzig
Ingvartsen (45')
Nkunku (80')
> Preview
Jan 8, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 18
RB Leipzig
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Mainz
Silva (21' pen., 61'), Szoboszlai (47'), Nkunku (58')
Jae-sung (57')
Jae-sung (16'), Bell (59')
Hack (19')
> Preview
Aug 15, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 1
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1-0
RB Leipzig
Niakhate (13')
Nebel (48'), Svensson (85')

Kampl (7'), Sabitzer (80')
> Preview
Jan 23, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 18
Mainz
3-2
RB Leipzig
Niakhate (24', 35'), Barreiro (50')
Niakhate (40'), da Costa (75')
Adams (15'), Halstenberg (30')
Halstenberg (23'), Adams (70'), Orban (88'), Sorloth (90+2')
> Preview