Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Star Belgrade win with a probability of 39.8%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 37.54% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Star Belgrade win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.78%) and 2-0 (4.99%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-2 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for RB Leipzig in this match.