Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Sep 19, 2023 at 8pm UK

Etihad Stadium

Man City
3 - 1
Red Star

Alvarez (47', 60'), Rodri (73')
Rodri (24'), Rodri (24'), Dias (56')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Bukari (45', 45')
Rodic (32'), Rodic (32'), Stamenic (82')

Reaction

Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola pictured on September 19, 2023

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Manchester City's Bernardo Silva pictured during the warm up before the match on December 28, 2022

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The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Manchester City

All competitions

Last Game: West Ham 1-3 Man City
Saturday, September 16 at 3pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Red Star Belgrade

All competitions

Last Game: Fenerbahce 1-3 Red Star
Wednesday, July 12 at 5.30pm in Club Friendlies 1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 61.02%. A win for Red Star Belgrade had a probability of 20.33% and a draw had a probability of 18.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.35%) and 2-0 (6.59%). The likeliest Red Star Belgrade win was 1-2 (5.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.

Result
Manchester City	Draw	Red Star Belgrade
61.02% ( 0.4)	18.65% ( -0.05)	20.33% ( -0.34)

Both teams to score 68.09% (

-0.38)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

73.28% (

-0.24)

26.72% (

0.25)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

52.87% (

-0.31)

47.13% (

0.32)

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.29% (

0.02)

8.71% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70.04% (

0.04)

29.96% (

-0.03)

Red Star Belgrade Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.58% (

-0.43)

25.42% (

0.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.76% (

-0.6)

60.24% (

0.6)

Score Analysis

Manchester City 61.02%

Red Star Belgrade 20.33%

Draw 18.65%

Manchester City	Draw	Red Star Belgrade
2-1 @ 9.03% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 7.35% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 6.59% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 5.4% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 5.37% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 5.03% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 4.49% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 3.27% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 3.07% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 2.19% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.6% ( 0.03) 5-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.01) 4-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.03) Other @ 4.73% Total : 61.02%	1-1 @ 7.4% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.19% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 2.21% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.55% Total : 18.65%	1-2 @ 5.07% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 3.03% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.82% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.1% Total : 20.33%