Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ferencvaros win with a probability of 48.94%. A win for Red Star Belgrade had a probability of 28.36% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ferencvaros win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.48%) and 2-0 (6.91%). The likeliest Red Star Belgrade win was 1-2 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Ferencvaros in this match.