Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 44.05%. A win for Red Star Belgrade had a probability of 30.71% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.09%) and 0-2 (7.4%). The likeliest Red Star Belgrade win was 1-0 (7.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Monaco in this match.